Chapter 1 자료와 통계학


블룸버그 비즈니스위크 - NEW YORK, NEW YORK················4


1 경영 및 경제 분야에서의 활용············································5

1. 회계············································································5
2. 재무············································································6
3. 마케팅 ········································································6
4. 생산운영관리·································································6
5. 경제············································································6
6. 정보시스템···································································7


2 자료·················································································7
1. 원소, 변수, 관측값 ·························································7
2. 측정을 위한 척도····························································9
3. 범주형 자료와 양적 자료················································ 10
4. 횡단면 자료와 시계열 자료·············································· 10


3 자료의 출처···································································· 13
1. 현존하는 자료······························································ 13
2. 관측연구···································································· 15
3. 실험·········································································· 15
4. 시간과 비용 이슈·························································· 16
5. 자료 수집 오류····························································· 16


4 기술통계········································································ 16


5 통계적 추론···································································· 18


6 엑셀을 활용한 통계분석···················································20
1. 데이터 세트와 엑셀 워크시트··········································· 20
2. 통계분석에서의 엑셀 활용··············································· 21



7 애널리틱스·····································································22



8 빅데이터와 데이터 마이닝················································23



9 통계분석을 위한 윤리적 지침···········································24
요점정리··································································· 26
보충문제··································································· 26



Chapter 2 기술통계: 표와 그래프를 이용한 표현



콜게이트-NEW YORK, NEW YORK·····································34


1 범주형 자료 요약·····························································35
1. 도수분포표································································· 35
2. 상대도수분포표와 백분율도수분포표································· 36
3. 엑셀을 활용한 도수분포표, 상대도수분포표, 백분율도수분포표 작성 ········································································· 37
4. 막대그래프와 원그래프·················································· 38
5. 엑셀을 활용한 막대그래프 작성········································ 40
연습문제··································································· 42


2 양적 자료 요약································································44
1. 도수분포표································································· 44
2. 상대도수분포표와 백분율도수분포표································· 46
3. 엑셀을 활용한 도수분포표 작성········································ 46
4. 점그래프···································································· 48
5. 히스토그램································································· 49
6. 엑셀을 활용한 히스토그램 작성········································ 50
7. 누적도수분포······························································· 52
8. 줄기-잎 그림······························································· 53
연습문제··································································· 56


3 표를 이용한 두 변수 자료 요약 ········································· 59
1. 교차표 ······································································ 59
2. 엑셀 피봇 테이블을 활용한 교차표 작성······························ 61
3. 심슨의 역설 ································································ 63
연습문제··································································· 64


4 그래프를 이용한 두 변수 자료 요약···································66
1. 산점도와 추세선··························································· 66
2. 엑셀을 활용한 산점도와 추세선 작성································· 68
3. 묶은 막대그래프와 누적 막대그래프 ································· 70
4. 엑셀을 활용한 묶은 막대그래프와 누적 막대그래프 작성········· 72
연습문제··································································· 73


5 자료 시각화: 효과적인 자료 시각화 방안 ·························· 75
1. 효과적인 그래프 표현 방법·············································· 75
2. 그래프 표현 형식 선택··················································· 76
3. 데이터 대시보드··························································· 77
4. 자료 시각화 사례: 신시내티 동물원과 식물원 ······················ 78
요점정리··································································· 80
보충문제··································································· 81
사례연구 1. 펠리칸 스토어············································· 84
사례연구 2. 영화 개봉··················································· 85



Chapter 3 기술통계: 수리적 측도를 이용한 표현


스몰 프라이 디자인-SANTA ANA, CALIFORNIA··················90


1 위치 측도······································································· 91
1. 평균·········································································· 91
2. 중앙값······································································· 93
3. 최빈값······································································· 94
4. 엑셀을 활용한 평균, 중앙값, 최빈값 계산···························· 94
5. 가중평균···································································· 95
6. 기하평균···································································· 96
7. 엑셀을 활용한 기하평균 계산··········································· 98
8. 백분위수···································································· 98
9. 사분위수···································································· 99
10. 엑셀을 활용한 백분위수, 사분위수 계산·····························100
연습문제································································· 102


2 변동성 측도·································································· 106

1. 범위·········································································107
2. 사분위 범위································································107
3. 분산·········································································107
4. 표준편차···································································109
5. 엑셀을 활용한 표본분산, 표본표준편차 계산·······················109
6. 변동계수···································································110
7. 엑셀의 기술통계 도구 활용·············································111
연습문제································································· 112


3 분포의 형태, 상대 위치, 이상값 검출 측도·························115

1. 분포의 형태································································115
2. z-점수······································································116
3. 체비셰프의 정리··························································117
4. 경험적 법칙································································118
5. 이상값 탐지································································119
연습문제································································· 120


4 다섯 수치 요약과 상자그림············································· 123
1. 다섯 수치 요약····························································123
2. 상자그림···································································123
3. 엑셀을 활용한 상자그림 작성··········································124
4. 상자그림을 이용한 비교분석···········································125
5. 엑셀을 활용한 상자그림 비교분석····································125
연습문제································································· 127


5 두 변수 간의 연관성 측도··············································· 130

1. 공분산······································································130
2. 공분산의 해석·····························································132
3. 상관계수 ··································································134
4. 상관계수의 해석··························································135
5. 엑셀을 활용한 표본공분산, 표본상관계수 계산····················136
연습문제································································· 137


6 데이터 대시보드···························································· 139
요점정리································································· 142
보충문제································································· 143
사례연구 1. 펠리칸 스토어··········································· 147
사례연구 2. 영화개봉················································· 148
사례연구 3. 헤븐리 초콜릿 웹사이트 상거래······················ 149
사례연구 4. 아프리카 코끼리 개체 수······························ 150



Chapter 4 확률 입문


미 항공우주국-WASHINGTON, DC··································· 154


1 확률실험, 계산규칙과 확률 부여하기······························ 155
1. 계산규칙, 조합, 순열····················································156
2. 확률 부여하기·····························································160
3. 켄터키 전력회사 프로젝트의 확률····································162
연습문제································································· 163



2 사건과 확률·································································· 165
연습문제································································· 166


3 확률의 기본 법칙··························································· 168
1. 여사건······································································168
2. 확률의 덧셈법칙··························································169
연습문제································································· 172



4 조건부 확률···································································174
1. 독립사건···································································177
2. 확률의 곱셈법칙··························································178
연습문제································································· 179


5 베이즈 정리···································································181
1. 표 접근법··································································185
연습문제································································· 186
요점정리································································· 187
보충문제································································· 187
사례연구 1. 해밀턴 카운티의 판사들······························· 190
사례연구 2. 랍스 마켓················································· 192



Chapter 5 이산확률분포


선거 유권자 대기시간····························································196


1 확률변수······································································ 197
1. 이산확률변수······························································197
2. 연속확률변수······························································198
연습문제································································· 198


2 이산확률분포······························································· 199
연습문제································································· 202


3 기댓값과 분산······························································· 204
1. 기댓값······································································204
2. 분산·········································································204
3. 엑셀을 활용한 기댓값, 분산, 표준편차 계산························205
연습문제································································· 206


4 이변량 분포, 공분산, 재무 포트폴리오····························· 208
1. 경험적 이변량 이산확률분포···········································209
2. 재무분야 응용·····························································211
요점정리································································· 215
연습문제································································· 215


5 이항확률분포·································································217
1. 이항실험···································································217
2. 마틴 의류가게 문제······················································219
3. 엑셀을 활용한 이항분포의 확률 계산································223
4. 이항분포의 기댓값과 분산··············································225
연습문제································································· 225


6 포아송 확률분포··························································· 227
1. 시간의 구간을 포함하는 예제··········································228
2. 길이 또는 거리를 포함하는 예제······································229
3. 엑셀을 활용한 포아송 분포의 확률 계산·····························229
연습문제································································· 232
요점정리································································· 233
보충문제································································· 234
사례연구-맥닐의 자동차 판매점····································· 236



Chapter 6 연속확률분포


프록터 & 갬블 -CINCINNATI, OHIO ·································· 240


1 균일확률분포·································································241
1. 확률척도로서의 면적····················································243
연습문제································································· 244


2 정규확률분포······························································· 246
1. 정규곡선···································································246
2. 표준정규확률분포························································248
3. 정규확률분포의 확률 계산··············································253
4. 그리어 타이어 사례······················································254
5. 엑셀을 활용한 정규분포의 확률 계산································256
연습문제································································· 258


3 지수확률분포································································261
1. 지수확률분포의 확률 계산··············································262
2. 포아송 분포와 지수분포의 관계·······································263
3. 엑셀을 활용한 지수분포의 확률 계산································264
연습문제································································· 265
요점정리································································· 266
보충문제································································· 266
사례연구 1. 스페셜티 토이즈········································ 269
사례연구 2. 겝하르트 일렉트로닉스································ 270


Chapter 7 표본추출과 표본분포


식량농업기구-ROME, ITALY··············································· 274


1 전자공업협회의 표본추출 문제······································· 276


2 표본의 선택·································································· 276
1. 유한 모집단에서의 표본추출···········································277
2. 무한 모집단에서의 표본추출···········································281
연습문제································································· 283


3 점추정········································································· 284
1. 실질적 적용································································285
연습문제································································· 286


4 표본분포의 개념··························································· 288


5 x의 표본분포······························································· 291
1. x의 기댓값·······························································291
2. x의 표준편차·····························································292
3. x의 표본분포 형태······················································293
4. EAI 예제에서 x의 표본분포··········································295
5. x의 표본분포의 실질적 가치··········································295
6. 표본크기와 의 표본분포 간의 관계································297
연습문제································································· 299


6 p의 표본분포······························································ 301
1. p의 기댓값································································302
2. p의 표준편차·····························································302
3. p의 표본분포 형태······················································303
4. p의 표본분포의 실질적 가치··········································304
연습문제································································· 305



7 기타 표본추출 방법······················································· 308

1. 층화무작위추출···························································308
2. 군집추출···································································309
3. 계통추출···································································310
4. 편의추출···································································310
5. 판단추출···································································311


8 실질적 적용: 빅데이터와 표본추출의 오차························311

1. 표본오차···································································311
2. 비표본오차································································312
3. 빅데이터···································································314
4. 빅데이터에 대한 이해···················································315
5. 빅데이터가 표본오차에 미치는 영향·································315
연습문제································································· 318
요점정리································································· 321
보충문제································································· 322
사례연구-마리온 유업················································· 325


Chapter 8 구간추정


푸드라이온-SALISBURY, NORTH CAROLINA·················· 328



1 모집단 평균: σ를 아는 경우············································ 329
1. 오차범위와 구간추정치·················································329
2. 엑셀 활용하기·····························································333
3. 실질적 조언································································335
연습문제································································· 335


2 모집단 평균: σ 를 모르는 경우········································ 337

1. 오차범위와 구간추정치·················································340
2. 엑셀 활용하기·····························································341
3. 실질적 조언································································342
4. 소표본 사용하기··························································343
5. 구간추정 절차 요약······················································344
연습문제································································· 345


3 표본크기의 결정···························································· 347
연습문제································································· 349


4 모집단 비율·································································· 351
1. 엑셀 활용하기·····························································352
2. 표본크기의 결정··························································354
연습문제································································· 356



5 실질적 적용: 빅데이터와 구간추정·································· 359
1. 빅데이터와 신뢰구간의 정밀도········································359
2. 빅데이터가 신뢰구간에 미치는 영향·································361
연습문제································································· 362
요점정리································································· 363
보충문제································································· 364
사례연구 1. Young Professional 잡지··························· 368
사례연구 2. 걸프 부동산·············································· 369




Chapter 9 가설검정

존 모렐 앤 컴퍼니-CINCINNATI, OHIO································374


1 귀무가설과 대립가설의 설정·········································· 375
1. 연구가설 성격인 대립가설··············································375
2. 이의제기 가정인 귀무가설··············································376
3. 귀무가설과 대립가설 형식 요약·······································377
연습문제································································· 378


2 제1종 오류와 제2종 오류··············································· 379
연습문제································································· 381



3 모집단 평균: σ 를 알고 있는 경우···································· 382
1. 단측검정···································································382
2. 양측검정···································································388
3. 엑셀을 활용한 분석······················································391
4. 요약 및 실질적 적용을 위한 조언·····································392
5. 가설검정과 구간추정과의 관계········································393
연습문제································································· 395



4 모집단 평균: σ 를 모르는 경우········································ 398
1. 단측검정···································································399
2. 양측검정···································································400
3. 엑셀을 활용한 분석······················································401
4. 요약 및 실질적 적용·····················································403
연습문제································································· 404


5 모비율·········································································· 407
1. 엑셀을 활용한 분석······················································409
2. 요약 및 실질적 적용·····················································410
연습문제································································· 411


6 실질적 적용: 빅데이터와 가설검정···································414
1. 빅데이터, 가설검정, p- 값·············································414
2. 가설검정에서 빅데이터의 영향········································415
연습문제································································· 416
요점정리································································· 417
보충문제································································· 418
사례연구 1. 품질협회················································· 421
사례연구 2. 베이뷰대학 경영대학 학생들의 윤리적 행동········ 422




Chapter 10 두 모집단 간 평균과 비율에 대한 추론

미국 식품의약청-WASHINGTON, D.C.······························· 426


1 두 모집단 평균 차이에 대한 추론: σ1 과 σ2 를 알고 있을 때·· 427

1. μ1 ? μ2 의 구간추정······················································427
2. 엑셀을 활용한 신뢰구간 추정··········································429
3. μ1 ? μ2 에 대한 가설검정···············································431
4. 엑셀을 활용한 가설검정················································433
5. 실질적 적용을 위한 조언···············································435
연습문제································································· 435


2 두 모집단 평균 차이에 대한 추론: σ1 과 σ2 를 모를 때······· 437

1. μ1 ? μ2 의 구간추정······················································438
2. 엑셀을 활용한 신뢰구간 추정··········································439
3. μ1 ? μ2 에 대한 가설검정···············································441
4. 엑셀을 활용한 가설검정················································443
5. 실질적 적용을 위한 조언···············································445
연습문제································································· 445


3 두 모집단 평균 차이에 대한 추론: 대응표본····················· 448
1. 엑셀을 활용한 가설검정················································450
연습문제································································· 452


4 두 모집단 비율 차이에 대한 추론···································· 455

1. p1 ? p2의 구간추정·······················································455
2. 엑셀을 활용한 신뢰구간 추정··········································457
3. p1 ? p2에 대한 가설검정················································459
4. 엑셀을 활용한 가설검정················································460
연습문제································································· 462
요점정리································································· 464
보충문제································································· 464
사례연구-PAR INC.·················································· 466




Chapter 11 모분산에 대한 추론


미국 정부 회계감사원-WASHINGTON, D.C.······················· 470


1 모분산에 대한 추론························································471

1. 구간추정···································································472
2. 엑셀을 활용한 신뢰구간 추정··········································474
3. 가설검정···································································476
4. 엑셀을 활용한 가설검정················································479
연습문제································································· 480


2 두 모분산에 대한 추정··················································· 482

1. 엑셀을 활용한 가설검정················································487
연습문제································································· 488
요점정리································································· 490
보충문제································································· 490
사례연구-공군 훈련 프로그램······································· 492




Chapter 12 적합도, 독립성 및 모비율의 동일성 검정


공동모금-ROCHESTER, NEW YORK·································496


1 적합도 검정·································································· 497

1. 다항확률분포······························································497
2. 엑셀을 활용한 적합도 검정·············································501
연습문제································································· 502


2 독립성 검정·································································· 503

1. 엑셀을 활용한 독립성 검정·············································508
연습문제································································· 509


3 3개 이상의 모집단에서 비율의 동일성 검정······················512

1. 다중비교 절차·····························································515
2. 엑셀을 활용한 모비율의 동일성 검정································517
연습문제································································· 519
요점정리································································· 521
보충문제································································· 521
사례연구 1. 푸엔티스 솔티 스낵····································· 523
사례연구 2. 프레즈노 보드게임······································ 525




Chapter 13 실험설계 및 분산분석


버크 사-CINCINNATI, OHIO·············································· 528


1 실험설계의 소개와 분산분석·········································· 530

1. 자료 수집··································································531

2. 분산분석을 위한 가정···················································532
3. 분산분석: 기본 개념·····················································533


2 분산분석과 완전확률화설계··········································· 535

1. 처리 간 분산 추정치·····················································537
2. 처리 내 분산 추정치·····················································537
3. 분산 추정치의 비교: F검정·············································538
4. 분산분석표································································540
5. 엑셀을 활용한 분석······················································541
6. k 개 모집단 평균의 동일성 검정: 관측연구··························543
연습문제································································· 545


3 다중비교 절차······························································· 547

1. 피셔의 LSD·······························································548

2. 제1종 오류율······························································550
연습문제································································· 551
요점정리································································· 553
보충문제································································· 554
사례연구-영업 전문가 보상·········································· 556




Chapter 14 단순선형회귀분석


월마트-BENTONVILLE, ARKANSAS································ 560


1 단순선형회귀모형··························································561

1. 회귀모형과 회귀식·······················································561
2. 회귀식의 추정·····························································562


2 최소제곱법··································································· 564

1. 엑셀을 활용한 산점도, 추정회귀선, 추정회귀식 작성·············568
연습문제································································· 569


3 결정계수······································································ 573

1. 엑셀을 활용한 결정계수 계산··········································577
2. 상관계수···································································578
연습문제································································· 579


4 모형의 가정·································································· 581


5 유의성 검정·································································· 583

1. σ2 의 추정··································································583

2. t 검정·······································································584

3. β1의 신뢰구간····························································586

4. F 검정······································································586

5. 유의성 검정 결과 해석에 대한 주의사항·····························588
연습문제································································· 590


6 추정회귀식을 이용한 추정과 예측··································· 591

1. 구간추정···································································592
2. y 평균값의 신뢰구간····················································592
3. y 개별값의 신뢰구간····················································594
연습문제································································· 597


7 엑셀의 회귀분석 도구···················································· 598

1. 아르만즈 피자 팔러 문제에 엑셀 회귀분석 도구 적용············598
2. 추정회귀식 결과값 해석················································600
3. 분산분석 결과값 해석···················································601
4. 회귀분석 통계량 결과값 해석··········································602
연습문제································································· 602


8 실질적 적용: 단순선형회귀분석에서 빅데이터와 가설검정·603
요점정리································································· 604
보충문제································································· 605
사례연구 1. 주식시장 위험 측정····································· 607
사례연구 2. 미교통부················································· 608
사례연구 3. 포인트 앤드 슛 디지털 카메라 고르기··············· 609
Appendix 14.1 미적분을 이용한 최소제곱 공식의 유도······· 611
Appendix 14.2 상관관계를 이용한 유의성 검정················ 613




Chapter 15 다중회귀분석


인터내셔널 페이퍼-PURCHASE, NEW YORK······················618


1 다중회귀모형·································································619

1. 회귀모형과 회귀식·······················································619
2. 다중회귀식의 추정·······················································620


2 최소제곱법··································································· 621

1. 예제: 버틀러 화물운송 회사············································621
2. 엑셀의 회귀분석 도구를 이용하여 다중회귀식 추정하기·········624
3. 계수 해석에 대한 주의사항·············································626
연습문제································································· 626


3 다중결정계수································································ 630
연습문제································································· 631


4 모형의 가정·································································· 633


5 유의성 검정·································································· 634

1. F 검정·······································································635
2. t 검정········································································637
3. 다중공선성································································638
연습문제································································· 640

6 추정과 예측을 위한 추정회귀방정식 활용························ 642
연습문제································································· 643


7 범주형 독립변수···························································· 644

1. 예제: 존슨 정수기회사··················································644
2. 모수의 해석································································646
3. 복잡한 범주형 변수······················································648
연습문제································································· 649
요점정리································································· 652
보충문제································································· 652
사례연구 1. 컨슈머 리서치사········································ 656
사례연구 2. 최고의 자동차 찾기····································· 657


Appendixes

1 참고 문헌····································································· 660
2 부록 A········································································· 660
3 부록 B-분포표····························································· 662
4 부록 C-합을 표현하는 기호··········································· 673
5 부록 D-통계분석을 위한 엑셀 활용·································676